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Eli Lilly Q3 Preview: Can Shares Stay Hot?

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The Zacks Medical sector has primarily traded in line with the general market in 2022, down roughly 19%.

A big-time player in the realm, Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) , is on deck to unveil quarterly earnings on November 1st before the market open.

Eli Lilly is one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies, boasting a diversified product profile that includes a solid lineup of new successful drugs.

Currently, the pharmaceutical titan carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) paired with an overall VGM Score of a D.

How does everything else stack up? Let’s take a closer look.

Share Performance & Valuation

LLY shares have been visibly strong in 2022, up more than 30% and leaving the S&P 500 in the dust.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Shares have continued on their market-beating trajectory over the last three months, up nearly 10% and again crushing the S&P 500’s performance.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The strong price action of Eli Lilly shares is undoubtedly a highlight, reflecting that buyers have stepped up to the plate all year long, something we can’t say for the majority of stocks in 2022.

Shares trade at steep multiples; the company’s 45.1X forward earnings multiple is on the higher end, well above its five-year median of 21.1X and reflecting a 105% premium relative to its Zacks Medical sector.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Quarterly Estimates

Two analysts have lowered their earnings outlook for the quarter over the last 60 days. Still, the Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate of $1.97 suggests a Y/Y earnings uptick of a modest 1.6%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Further, the Zacks Consensus Sales Estimate of $6.9 billion indicates Y/Y revenue growth of roughly 2.1%.

Quarterly Performance & Market Reactions

LLY has struggled to post strong bottom-line results, falling short of the Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate in five of its last six quarters. In its latest print, LLY fell short of earnings expectations by 30%.

Top-line results have been much more positive; LLY has penciled in four revenue beats over its last five quarters. Below is a chart illustrating the company’s revenue on a quarterly basis.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

In addition, it’s worth noting that the market wasn’t impressed with the company’s latest print, with shares moving downwards by roughly 4% following the release.

Putting Everything Together

LLY shares have been a bright spot in an otherwise dim market in 2022, outperforming the S&P 500 across several timeframes.

The company’s forward earnings multiple is well above its five-year median and its Zacks Medical sector average.

Analysts have primarily bearish in their earnings outlook, with estimates suggesting slight Y/Y upticks in revenue and earnings.

LLY has fallen short of EPS expectations as of late, but revenue results have consistently beat expectations.

Heading into the release, Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with an Earnings ESP Score of -2.5%.


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